نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسنده

• مجتبی رستمی کیا

دانش آموخته دکتری مبانی نظری اسلام، دانشگاه معارف اسلامی، قم

چکیده

لازمه برنامه‌ریزی هوشمندانه برای آینده دانش های انسانی، داشتن تصویری از چگونگی شکل گیری ویژگی های آنها در دنیای آینده است؛ بدون توجه به تغییراتی که در آینده به وقوع خواهد پیوست، برنامه ریزی ها و سیاستگذاری ها حتی در صورتی که کاملا دقیق و اصولی باشد متناسب با شرایط گذشته و حال است و نمی تواند برای شرایط آینده از کارآیی و اثربخشی لازم برخوردار باشد، برای مواجهه با آینده ای مبهم و چندگانه نیازمند « برنامه ریزی پابرجا» هستیم که مبتنی بر شرایط آینده تدوین شده باشد و با وقوع اتفاقات جدید پایدار و تاب آوری خود را از دست ندهد. علوم انسانی اسلامی از چند جهت در معرض تغییرات زمانه است؛ اولا موضوعاتی که در این دانش مورد بحث قرار می گیرد متناسب با شرایط زمان، مساله های روز و سؤالاتی که پرسیده می شود تغییر می کد؛ ثانیا روش های به کار رفته در علوم انسانی اسلامی بدون نسبت با تحولات روش شناسی در سایر علوم نیست. از سوی دیگر باید به تحولاتی که در بکارگیری نشر توزیع علم و دستاوردهای آن اتفاق می افتد، اشاره کرد.علوم انسان اسلامی را می توان از منظر جهانی و از منظر کشور ایران اسلامی، مورد بحث قرار داد و آینده نگاری های متفاوتی را این دو رویکرد طلب خواهند کرد که این نگاشته بر روی آینده پژوهی در ایران اسلامی متمرکز شده است و روندهای جهانی شدن علوم و حرکت پرشتاب علوم به سمت دانش های انسانی را تنها به عنوان تأثیرات کلان محیط دانش محسوب خواهد کرد. این مقاله می کوشد تا با بررسی کلان روندهای گذشته علوم انسانی اسلامی در ایران، تحلیل واقع بینانه ای از وضعیت موجود این دانش در ایران ارائه داده و در پرتو پیشران های آینده وضعیت این دانش را در چهار سناریو « پایان علوم انسانی و جنگ در فضای ابری»، « ایمنی گله ای و استراتژی های تدافعی»، « تخصص گرایی» و « عمومی سازی دانش اسلامی» مورد بررسی قرار می دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده پژوهی
• آینده نگاری
• آینده علوم انسانی اسلامی
• پایان علوم انسانی
• جنگ ابری
• ایمنی گله ای

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future scenarios of Islamic humanities in Iran

نویسنده [English]

• mojtaba rostamikia

PhD in Theoretical Foundations of Islam, Qom University of Islamic Education

چکیده [English]

Abstract
The requirement for intelligent planning for the future of human sciences is to have a picture of how their characteristics will be formed in the future world; Islamic humanities are subject to changes in several ways; first, the topics discussed in this knowledge change in accordance with the conditions of the time, the issues of the day, and the questions that are asked; second, the methods used in Islamic humanities are not unrelated to methodological developments in other sciences. On the other hand, it is necessary to mention the developments that occur in the use of publishing and distributing science and its achievements. Regardless of the global perspective on the changes in Islamic humanities, the approach of the study in this article is related to the internal environment of this knowledge in Iran and will consider the trends of globalization of sciences and the rapid movement of sciences towards humanities only as macro-effects of the knowledge environment. This article attempts to examine the status of this knowledge in four scenarios: "The end of humanities and war in the cloud", "Herd safety and defensive strategies", "Specialization", and "Generalization of Islamic knowledge".
Keywords: Future studies, futurology, future of Islamic humanities, end of humanities, cloud warfare, herd immunity.
 
Introduction
Popper defines foresight as an important tool in science, technology, and innovation policymaking. He argues: “Today, the world is becoming more and more complex in a dynamic way; this factor makes it impossible for any organization to know everything about how to intervene in successful policymaking. In other words, many governments have accepted that the knowledge needed to intervene in successful policymaking is distributed among different actors. It seems that foresight activity, with its emphasis on participatory processes and networking, makes a major contribution to acquiring such knowledge.” (Popper, 2010, p. 62-89) The future of Islamic humanities in Iran is rooted in many indicators and is considered a multifaceted issue from a research perspective.
 
Materials & Methods
This article is written using methods based on future-oriented scenario writing. This method attempts to monitor possible future scenarios by balancing the weight of the past, the current situation, and future drivers.
 
Discussion& Result
Future drivers are considered the future's traction, and there is disagreement among futurists about how many drivers will end up in the near future. A driver must have the power to set in motion all the environmental circles surrounding science and determine the future direction of knowledge. Some of the drivers that have been considered by mainstream and elite analyses are as follows:

The development of cognitive technologies, especially the development of artificial intelligence (the emergence of data as the new oil and its transformation into a geopolitical issue, the expansion of artificial intelligence technologies, the Internet of Things, robots, automation, cloud computing, augmented and virtual realities, etc.)
The development of cognitive sciences (cognitive neuroscience, cognitive computer science, cognitive linguistics, philosophy of mind, cognitive psychology)
The development of generalization of knowledge (convergence and synergy of plethisms and decentralization in the field of knowledge)
The commodification of knowledge (the transformation of any product into a service and process)
The communication of knowledge (the emergence of a comprehensive network and a multi-screen world and the phenomenon of collective persuasion and persuasion)

According to the examination of the common points of the drivers and based on the mutual causal effects, four possible scenarios can be imagined for the future of Islamic humanities: Among the uncertainties identified in the above drivers, the uncertainty of the upcoming crises and also the interaction of the actors have been taken into account, which are written in two optimistic and pessimistic assumptions:

Negative optimistic mode
Negative pessimistic mode
Positive optimistic state
Negative Optimistic Mode
Result

Conclusion
The perspective of sustainable planning based on the scenario-based future of Islamic sciences, despite being new, can bring to the fore the metaphors hidden in this knowledge. It seems that, considering the network and aggressive crises and the hostility of the knowledge system, the scenario based on data warfare in the cloud space is one of the most important crises or threats that Islamic knowledge will experience. This issue itself can create countless challenges in the future of Islamic humanities. The fledgling seedling that began its work by competing with modern Western science and developed in a way based on its "critical" methodology is currently in its most affirmative historical stage, and evidence from environmental analysis and elite society and data analysis in related software shows that the network of causal relationships in this scenario has the greatest continuity and convergence, and this in itself strengthens the possibility of the emergence of this scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Future research
• future forecasting
• the future of Islamic humanities
• the end of humanities
• cloud warfare
• herd safety